Population projections and economic analysis
Cohort-component and trend projections, households and housing need, dependency ratios, location quotients, shift-share, and measures of inequality.
Lesson 3 of 40 · about 29 minutes
Learning objectives
- Describe the cohort-component method and explain when simpler projection methods are good enough.
- Calculate a linear and a geometric projection, a housing-unit population estimate, and a dependency ratio.
- Convert a population projection into households and the housing units needed to serve them.
- Calculate and interpret a location quotient.
- Explain the three components of shift-share analysis and compute the industry-mix effect.
- Interpret the index of dissimilarity and the Gini coefficient.
Key concepts
Projections, forecasts, and estimates
These words are often used loosely, but they mean different things:
- An estimate describes a current or past value that wasn't directly counted (this year's population, between censuses).
- A projection shows what would happen if stated assumptions hold. It's conditional: "if current trends continue…"
- A forecast is the projection the analyst judges most likely.
Every projection rests on assumptions, so good practice is to state them plainly and often to show low, middle, and high scenarios.
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